U.S. Mac Demand Soft in January as Customers Wait for Updated Models

piper jaffray analyst gene munster out new report today citing data research firm npd on u.s. sales of macs. according data, apple's u.s. mac sales 1% year-over-year in january, tracking behind predictions have called 20% year-over-year growth full quarter. munster believes, however, continued strength in international markets , potential new mac updates such refreshed macbook air near end of quarter apple close meet expectations.

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we have analyzed domestic npd retail data first month of march quarter, 1% y/y. data appears soft on y/y basis; however, last quarter actual mac growth outpaced npd 14 percentage points. also, believe apple may launch new macbook airs march. net-net, believe data suggests mac sales in range of 4.4m-4.6m, or 17%-22% y/y growth (we believe street consensus 4.5m macs in quarter , @ 4.5m).

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with historical evidence showing overall growth outpacing npd's u.s. data 14 percentage points, munster believes apple's actual worldwide mac growth january in 15% range, close enough 20% target full quarter give apple reasonable chance @ making difference strong finish.




piper jaffray's independent data on iphone sales january tracking toward full-quarter sales of 32-34 million, figure overcome softness on mac side. ipod sales trends remain in line predictions of continued declines customers shift aging ipod line iphones , ipads.

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